The Iran war is stressing the oil market
Published 6 March 2026
Right! So if war breaks out in the Middle East, people instinctively look at oil prices. But price alone is noisy. It mixes fear, speculation and supply pressure together. Traders therefore, watch something simpler. The prompt spread.
That's what this data visualisation is about. Take a look!
The prompt spread is the difference between the price of Brent crude for delivery in the nearest month and the price for delivery the month after. It is a tiny sliver of the futures curve, but one that carries a great deal of information.
The current US-Iran conflict has brought the Strait of Hormuz back to the centre of global energy markets. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through that narrow waterway. When tankers hesitate, insurance costs jump and shipping routes become uncertain. So the question the market must answer is simple: Is oil becoming harder to obtain right now?
The prompt spread gives us that answer. When it widens sharply, immediate supply is tightening. It tells us whether the physical market is actually tightening, which as you can see, it is.